So Much For The Wisdom of The Old
A few years back, I recall reading an article where the author posited that great works of genius are produced by the youthful inventor, artist, or scientist, all in the hope of attracting a mate. The author analyzed production by our societies great thinkers and compared their ages. Take Einstein for instance, who produced some of his greatest theories between 19 and 27. Indeed, there a great deal of genius has been produced by the young. We liked to joke that this was less because geniuses were trying to attract a mate and more because they were married after the age of 30, and it was their wives constant nagging to take out the trash that kept them producing great works later in life.
Meanwhile, scientists concluded that we are headed toward a dark age of technological advances. The analysis essentially says that the year 1873 was the greatest of innovation based on critical inventions and patent filings. The period lasted until about 1911. Now it seems, society will be lucky to know how to change a light bulb, let alone invent anything new.
Then I cam across an unrelated article stating that in 1860, half the US population was under the age of 19. [source]
Let’s presuppose for a moment that the first hypothesis is true, and that most works of genius are created when their maker is in their twenties or very early thirties. That would mean that in 1873, a huge percentage of the American population was hitting their most productive period of their lives.
Similarly, between 1945 and 1960, the post war baby boom produced a huge mass of young people. What followed? Between 1965 and 1980, massive innovation in the sciences including the silicon chip, the creation of the internet, the basic foundations of modern genetics, travel to the moon, and thousands of other developments in the physics, chemistry, and electronics.
By 1980, the baby boomer generation was hitting their late thirties. What did we get? Post Modern art and very little else. The 1980's was essentially a dark age. Then, coinciding with the baby boomer's children coming of age was a new technological revolution, the rise of dotcom tech, miniaturization, portable computing, cloning, and a multitude of other innovations.
Take as example, television. Regularly scheduled broadcasts of color television began in 1959 with Bonanza, helped by RCA's affordable 1954 color television set. But it was major technological innovations in the mid to late 1960's that dramatically reduced the cost of color television-- coinciding with the coming of age of the first baby boomers.
By 1980 though, color television was everything we think of today. Little changed in the technology after the mid 1970's -- roughly the same time as the baby boomer's passed the threshold of youth into middle age. There was little to no innovation until the LCD technology, Plasma screens, High Definition, and thin cathode ray tubes. What is common to this pattern? Large numbers of young people in the 1960’s and 1970’s working as engineers and scientists producing great innovation, followed by a generation gap in the 1980’s that was later followed by a bump in the youth population in the 1990’s.
If all this is true, very soon we really will be living in the dark ages; Gen X has started to hit middle age and Western families are shrinking in size. Ever smaller family sizes will further contribute to the decline of innovation. Of course, this all could circumstantial.
Meanwhile, scientists concluded that we are headed toward a dark age of technological advances. The analysis essentially says that the year 1873 was the greatest of innovation based on critical inventions and patent filings. The period lasted until about 1911. Now it seems, society will be lucky to know how to change a light bulb, let alone invent anything new.
Then I cam across an unrelated article stating that in 1860, half the US population was under the age of 19. [source]
Let’s presuppose for a moment that the first hypothesis is true, and that most works of genius are created when their maker is in their twenties or very early thirties. That would mean that in 1873, a huge percentage of the American population was hitting their most productive period of their lives.
Similarly, between 1945 and 1960, the post war baby boom produced a huge mass of young people. What followed? Between 1965 and 1980, massive innovation in the sciences including the silicon chip, the creation of the internet, the basic foundations of modern genetics, travel to the moon, and thousands of other developments in the physics, chemistry, and electronics.
By 1980, the baby boomer generation was hitting their late thirties. What did we get? Post Modern art and very little else. The 1980's was essentially a dark age. Then, coinciding with the baby boomer's children coming of age was a new technological revolution, the rise of dotcom tech, miniaturization, portable computing, cloning, and a multitude of other innovations.
Take as example, television. Regularly scheduled broadcasts of color television began in 1959 with Bonanza, helped by RCA's affordable 1954 color television set. But it was major technological innovations in the mid to late 1960's that dramatically reduced the cost of color television-- coinciding with the coming of age of the first baby boomers.
By 1980 though, color television was everything we think of today. Little changed in the technology after the mid 1970's -- roughly the same time as the baby boomer's passed the threshold of youth into middle age. There was little to no innovation until the LCD technology, Plasma screens, High Definition, and thin cathode ray tubes. What is common to this pattern? Large numbers of young people in the 1960’s and 1970’s working as engineers and scientists producing great innovation, followed by a generation gap in the 1980’s that was later followed by a bump in the youth population in the 1990’s.
If all this is true, very soon we really will be living in the dark ages; Gen X has started to hit middle age and Western families are shrinking in size. Ever smaller family sizes will further contribute to the decline of innovation. Of course, this all could circumstantial.
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