The Science of Political Science
There are lots of scenerios running around on the internet suggesting Kerry or Bush will win for various reasons. We'll admit we haven't had time to read a newspaper in about 6 days, nor have we read any polling information, not even our local elections. But still, we have some predictions.
47% Chance: Toss up.
Pundits have been saying it comes down to Florida. It doesn't. It comes down to Ohio. In this scenerio that we believe is most likely, Kerry wins Pennsylvania, the Blue Midwestern States, and the other usual blue. Bush wins Florida and Ohio's votes determine the winner. We won't know the answer to this one for a very long time.
43% Chance: Kerry Blow Out
Kerry wins Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and while the election may be close here, the challenges end because knocking just one of these states over to the red column would not be enough. Kerry wins the midwestern blue states. Arkansas, Nevada, Colorado, and maybe, though unlikely even in this scenerio, but West Virginia are close elections [though ultimately, we believe Bush wins these few; again, it would not make a difference, since Kerry would have won].
10% Chance: Bush Blow Out
Bush wins Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania along with most of the midwest. New Jersey and Oregon become close, but ultimately go Blue. We think this is extremely unlikely.
Things we're counting on:
Get out the vote efforts can increase turnout by 1-2%. Democrats are better at this, and its a universally acknowledged truth. This is mitigated because voters come to the polls to vote for a president, particularly this year. The effect is enhanced by rainy weather. The few extra thousand votes GOTV generates for Democrats might be enough to skew the polsters.
Cellular households are large enough now to make almost entirely useless, phone surveys. These will tend be clustered in the Blue northeast, but might still make the difference elsewhere. Cellular only housesholds are tending towards kerry by 5 to 10%.
Other Anecdotes:
The redskins lost their last homegain before the election, ensuring the incumbant [that means George Bush, who is Presidnet] loses.
Months ago, someone told John Kerry his chances of being president were about as good as the red sox winning the world series. Well, much to our shagrin, they did.
Maybe our BA in political science is not really worth anything and we are completely wrong. Maybe the networks will change colors on us, make the Democrats orange and the Republicans purple. But in either case, the polls in New Jersey open tomorrow at 6 am. So do we. Good night, and this is our last post until wednesday.
47% Chance: Toss up.
Pundits have been saying it comes down to Florida. It doesn't. It comes down to Ohio. In this scenerio that we believe is most likely, Kerry wins Pennsylvania, the Blue Midwestern States, and the other usual blue. Bush wins Florida and Ohio's votes determine the winner. We won't know the answer to this one for a very long time.
43% Chance: Kerry Blow Out
Kerry wins Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and while the election may be close here, the challenges end because knocking just one of these states over to the red column would not be enough. Kerry wins the midwestern blue states. Arkansas, Nevada, Colorado, and maybe, though unlikely even in this scenerio, but West Virginia are close elections [though ultimately, we believe Bush wins these few; again, it would not make a difference, since Kerry would have won].
10% Chance: Bush Blow Out
Bush wins Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania along with most of the midwest. New Jersey and Oregon become close, but ultimately go Blue. We think this is extremely unlikely.
Things we're counting on:
Get out the vote efforts can increase turnout by 1-2%. Democrats are better at this, and its a universally acknowledged truth. This is mitigated because voters come to the polls to vote for a president, particularly this year. The effect is enhanced by rainy weather. The few extra thousand votes GOTV generates for Democrats might be enough to skew the polsters.
Cellular households are large enough now to make almost entirely useless, phone surveys. These will tend be clustered in the Blue northeast, but might still make the difference elsewhere. Cellular only housesholds are tending towards kerry by 5 to 10%.
Other Anecdotes:
The redskins lost their last homegain before the election, ensuring the incumbant [that means George Bush, who is Presidnet] loses.
Months ago, someone told John Kerry his chances of being president were about as good as the red sox winning the world series. Well, much to our shagrin, they did.
Maybe our BA in political science is not really worth anything and we are completely wrong. Maybe the networks will change colors on us, make the Democrats orange and the Republicans purple. But in either case, the polls in New Jersey open tomorrow at 6 am. So do we. Good night, and this is our last post until wednesday.
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